Change and its impact of industrial development in East Asia _ W paper
80s of the 20th century, the famous Japanese economist Akamatsu put forward the theory of flying geese pattern of industrial development. Later scholars in Japan and other East Asian countries, further development of this theory used to explain the international division of labor in East Asia and the development process of change of industrial structure, Japan East Asian industrial development of the leading pack, the development of knowledge and technology-intensive industries, the Asian followed the development of capital-intensive industries, the ASEAN countries and China in the The flying geese model the formation of the industry cycle and the mechanism of the chain changes within the East Asian region, the East Asian countries in its industry conversion,abercrombie paris, led to a higher level of national economies in order to take-off and sustained development.
Flying Geese Model basic description of the changing circumstances of the 1990s, before the East Asian industrial development. After the 1990s, the flying geese model has been disrupted, the East Asian industrial development, mainly due to:
, Japan's industrial upgrading to slow down to drive the rest of East Asia the leading pack of the national industrial upgrading has been weakened. After Japan's bubble economy burst, the entire 20th century, the 1990s economic growth is relatively stagnant, resulting in the upgrade the slow pace of development of high-tech industry and the United States the gap is widening. Technology trade, for example, in 1993, U.S. exports reached $ 20.4 billion, is the largest technology trade-exporting countries, although Japan at the second place, exports of only $ 3.9 billion; while Japan's trade imports amounted to 7.2 billion U.S. dollars, ranking the first. Japan's technology trade exports more than imports of industrial sectors are mainly electrical machinery industry. (Note: Korea part of mobile communications technology leader in Japan. In the information infrastructure in 2001, the Japanese Internet penetration rate of 37.1%. (Note: The 2001 White Paper on Information and Communication) Japanese nationals Internet utilization is relatively low, 47, Road House, the county, including city,Converse Tilbud, including the utilization of no one more than 50 percent, the highest in Tokyo and only around 46.9 percent, while the economy is relatively backward in Hokkaido was 28.8%. (Note: People's Network - Market News Network Edition, July 3, 2001) is currently about 70 million Japanese households have broadband access, while South Korea has five million, more than 30 percent of its total number of users; the end of 1999, Singapore each classroom through the Internet, and Japan plans to achieve this goal in 2003. (Note: The Bangkok Post, June 20, 2001 article: The slowdown in the 1980s, driven by East Asian countries, economic growth and industrial upgrading diminished capacity. Japan accounted for six major trading countries in Southeast Asia, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, the share of imports from 25 percent in 1993 and gradually dropped to 18 percent in 1998, these six countries, exports to Japan accounted for export The ratio of the total dropped from 15 percent in 1993 to 11 percent in 1998. In 1999, Japan accounted for only ASEAN absorbed 5.4 percent of the foreign direct investment, behind the European Union and the United States. (Note: ASEAN Secretary-General's speech in Tokyo on October 25, 2000: The growth outlook remains bleak. The strength of the Japanese economy since the 1990s little change, still the world's second largest economy, still has a strong practical technology development capabilities and world-class manufacturing technology, but because of domestic economic reform in the 1990s and poor adjustment ridden, bad debt, large fiscal deficits, coupled with an aging population and other factors, affected Japan's economic recovery and long-term development prospects, so that Japan's existing economic advantages of hard to get into the forces driving innovation and development of domestic industries, so that upgrading of domestic industries in Japan and the pace of technology transfer and industry to other countries and regions in East Asia to slow down, affecting the Japanese continue to play the role of the East Asian economic development leading pack. Meanwhile, self-contained industrial structure of Japan is difficult to maintain, constitute a fundamental part of Japanese industrial technology industries, such as forging, casting, stamping, and other departments of the machining industry, the competitiveness has been greatly weakened, was forced to the level of other East Asian countries division of labor, this trend to accelerate the change of the flying geese pattern.
Second, Asia's After the mid-1980s, Asia's In the 1990s, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore success in the development of high-tech industry, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, South Korea's mobile communication technology have the world's advanced level. Meanwhile, the 1990-1995, the (Note: the China's investment up to $ 210 billion. (Note: China has a relatively independent and complete industrial system. Since the reform and opening up, China's various industries made significant progress. From labor-intensive industries to the part of the capital-and technology-intensive industries, such as textiles, clothing, machinery and electronic products, home appliances, communications equipment, clocks, office equipment and so has a strong competitive edge; iron and steel, petrochemical industry developed very rapidly; China's basic machinery, industrial machinery and other equipment and key parts of the manufacturing level is still low, the development of tertiary industry is relatively backward.
The next few years, the pace of China's industrial upgrading will be faster than other East Asian countries. China will accelerate the development of capital, technology-intensive industries, vigorously develop the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech industries, and active use of new technology industrial transformation of traditional industries. The development of mechanical and electrical equipment has been classified as At present, high-tech industries in some countries and regions, mainly in electronic communications technology to the Chinese mass transfer from Shenzhen to Tianjin, China's coastal areas has formed a production of electronic communication technology with According to the Chinese Ministry of Information Industry estimates: the next five years, China's information industry annual growth rate will reach 20 percent in 2005, the scale of China's information industry will double in 2000 on the basis of, among the big countries of the world's information. (Note: The Economic Times, June 10, 2001.) South Korea's Samsung Economic Research Institute forecast: China in five years in the field of synthetic fibers, digital home appliances, state-of-the-art machine tools, steel, 10 years in the information technology, petrochemicals, , shipbuilding and automotive areas such as neck and neck with South Korea. In 2010, in addition to Semiconductor, the most of the major industries will be more than South Korea. (Note: The Ministry of Economy and Trade website: foreign statistics.) to join the WTO, China will attract more foreign investment of a higher technological content. Moreover, finance, insurance, consulting, technical services, risk funds and other higher-level tertiary industry will also have a larger development.
Fourth, the Asian financial crisis dealt a heavy blow the Southeast Asian countries, temporarily interrupt the process of industrial development in some countries. The financial crisis has over the past four years, the Southeast Asian countries are still the recovery process. The same time, the financial crisis caused by political instability in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries, and further deterioration of the investment environment in Southeast Asia,Converse All Star, foreign investors have turned to Northeast Asia. ASEAN to attract foreign capital in 1998 of $ 19.6 billion in 1999 reduced to $ 16.9 billion (Note: $ 40.318 billion. (Note: the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation website: foreign statistics.) This indicates that the slow pace of foreign investment in Southeast Asia to transfer industry. Revolution in the face of new technologies, in addition to the pre-crisis level of industrial development is relatively high, by the crisis less severe in Singapore and Malaysia have the ability to continue to promote the development of high-tech industry, high-tech industry development in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines may be far far behind. 1990s, basically did not enter within the division of labor in East Asia, Indo-Chinese countries into the system is still slow pace.
In short, in the 1990s, in the battle the head of the flying geese Japan and Southeast Asian countries in the tail of the domestic economic or political serious problems, the the flying geese pattern of economic development in East Asia. The coming period, with the United States and other developed countries, competition, maintain the leading position in the industrial structure in East Asia, will focus on the development of creative knowledge and technology-intensive industry, continue to look outward transfer of capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. At the same time maintaining the competitiveness of labor-intensive industries, capital-and technology-intensive industries and knowledge-intensive industries have developed rapidly. South Korea, Taiwan will focus on the development of IT, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals,nike free run, precision machinery and automation and other high-tech industries. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan and South Korea will strengthen the division of labor between the level of capital-and technology-intensive industries and knowledge-intensive industries. Southeast Asian countries will actively strengthen the industrial division of labor and cooperation with Northeast Asian countries, Singapore will be the development of knowledge-intensive industries, proposed to become one of the centers of global knowledge-driven industries. Malaysia larger advantage in the electronic machinery, integrated circuits and components, such as technical labor-intensive industries to capital-and technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries to upgrade certain foundation. Level of industrial development in Thailand after living in Malaysia, will continue focused on the play to its advantages in agricultural products, wood products, furniture, leather, electrical machinery, clothing, etc., at the same time seeking to upgrade to the capital-and technology-intensive industries, while Indonesia, the Philippines and other Indo- countries will continue to develop labor-intensive industries. Overall, the East Asian industrial development in the progressive features at the same time keep the ladder, the greater the level of division of labor characteristics. At the same time, between countries in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asian countries, industrial scale and level of the gap will widen. In
Second, the impact of the new changes of the industrial development in East Asia
level of development of a country's industry, fundamentally determines the strength and position of the country in the international economy. The new changes of the industrial development in East Asia, East Asian international relations and global pattern will have a profound impact.
First, the status and role of the Chinese economy in the East Asian economies will be further strengthened, and a series of changes caused by the relationship between China and other East Asian countries.
China's GDP accounted for the proportion of GDP in East Asia excluding Japan has increased from 25% in 1980 to 37 percent in 1999. In the 1990s, China's GDP growth accounted for 40 percent of East Asia as a whole. (Note: Trade White Paper 2001) The Chinese economy has become the East Asian economies, an important driving force. For a long period of time, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, China's industrial status will continue to rise, the Chinese market will further expand the position of the Chinese economy in the East Asian economies will be further enhanced. Among them, the huge market of China's rapidly growing special and important role in the rise in China's economic status. Because the essence of international competition is the competition of the market, the market is a key link in the relationship to the industry cycle and upgrade can proceed smoothly. East Asian countries, the loss of the Chinese market will directly affect the survival and development of its industry, thus affecting the overall economic outlook. Other East Asian countries in order to maintain international competitiveness, to establish closer cooperation relationship with China. On the other hand, China's economy in the East Asian industrial structure of the ladder Chiang Kai-shek rose to the middle position, but China's industry is still relatively backward, away from the center of East Asian industrial structure is still a considerable distance. The industry position that corresponds to the role of China in East Asian international relations: political influence, economic influence is relatively small, in the East Asian countries, the relationship is still not fully functional
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